The unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic spanning over three years claimed millions of lives worldwide and caused immense misery to the humanity. Rapid developments of vaccines and improved treatment regimens helped in improving the situation. The end of global Public Health Emergency (PHE) for COVID-19 was declared by WHO and national agencies in early May 2023. However, the end of public health emergency did not mean end of the disease. The COVID-19 disease remained a public health risk albeit with reduced infectivity and severity.
The activity of SARS-CoV-2 virus responsible for COVID-19 disease has increased since mid-February 2025. The test positivity rate has gone up to 11 % for the first time since July 2024. The regions most affected are Eastern Mediterranean, South-East Asia, and Western Pacific. As for variants, the NB.1.8.1 variant, a Variant Under Monitoring (VUM) is on rise accounting for 10.7% of global sequences reported as of mid-May while circulation of LP.8.1 variant is on decline.
In the European Union countries, SARS-CoV-2 activity remains low but there is slow increase in proportion of positive tests in some countries which have no significant impact. There are currently no SARS-CoV-2 variants meeting the criteria of Variants of Concern (VOC). The variants BA.2.86 and KP.3 meet the criteria of Variants of Interest (VOI).
In Italy, COVID19 deaths rise in early summer and peak in high fall thus showing a recurring seasonal pattern of COVID-19 mortality.
In the USA, as of May 27, 2025, it is estimated that COVID-19 infections are growing or likely growing in 6 states, declining or likely declining in 17 states, and not changing in 22 states. The time-varying reproductive number (Rt) Estimate (a measure of transmission based on data from incident emergency department (ED) visits) is estimated to be 1.15 (0.88 – 1.51). Estimated Rt values above 1 indicate epidemic growth.
In India, number of active cases as on 02 June 2025 is 3961 (an increase of 203 since previous day). Cumulative deaths attributed to COVID-19 since 01 January 2025 is 32.
The current trends in the frequency and global distribution of COVID-19 is concerning but not alarming. Imposing travel or trade restrictions is not recommended based on the current risk assessment. The International Health Regulations (IHR) Standing Recommendations on COVID-19 which provide ongoing guidance for sustained COVID-19 threat management remain valid through 30 April 2026. Countries should continue offering COVID-19 vaccines as per professional recommendations.
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References:
- WHO. COVID-19 – Global Situation. 28 May 2025. Available at https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON572
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) 2025. Overview of respiratory virus epidemiology in the EU/EEA, week 20, 2025. Available at https://erviss.org/
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) 2025. SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern as of 28 May 2025. Available at https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/variants-concern
- Roccetti M., 2025. Seasonal Trends of COVID-19 Deaths in Italy: A Confirmatory Linear Regression Study with Time Series Data from 2024/2025. Preprint at medRix. Published 31 May 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.05.30.25328619
- CDC. Current Epidemic Trends (Based on Rt) for States. 28 May 2025. Available at https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-modeling-and-forecasting/rt-estimates/index.html
- MoHFW. COVID 19 in India as on 02 June 2025. Available at https://web.archive.org/web/20250602130711/https://covid19dashboard.mohfw.gov.in/notification.html
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 Standing Recommendations on COVID-19 which provide ongoing guidance for sustained COVID-19 threat management remain valid through 30 April 2026. Countries should continue offering COVID-19 vaccines as per professional recommendations.){kind=link}